The pattern of Democrats contracting into more densely populated areas while surrendering big swathes of political turf is already shaping the contours of the still-early 2022 gubernatorial campaign. That's devastating for blue states, and could soon tip the balance of power in Congress in 2022. Opinions in your inbox: Get a digest of our takes on current events every day. Thats the provocative conclusion of Michael Podhorzer, a longtime political strategist for labor unions and the chair of the Analyst Institute, a collaborative of progressive groups that studies elections. I was seeing some very, very close numbers before a lot of the rural counties reported [election returns], and once they did, it just blew the door open for Abbott and [Lt. Gov. study One might think incumbents in these states should fear voter retribution at a time when many Americans are struggling. After their expected reelections, at least two of these governorsDeSantis and Newsomare positioned to carry their states policy visions into a national competition for the presidency. Since about 2008, Podhorzer calculates, the southern states at the heart of the red nation have again fallen further behind the blue nation in per capita income. All of the blue states have expanded access to Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, while about 60 percent of the total red-nation population lives in states that have refused to do so. Among Republicans, former President Trump is the most popular, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis clearly the leading alternative. Like other analysts who study democracy, he views the Trump faction that now dominates the Republican Partywhat he terms the MAGA movementas the U.S. equivalent to the authoritarian parties in places such as Hungary and Venezuela. Period.. As a result, Texas might seem like a lost cause to Democrats across the nation. Its a phenomenon examined in stunning detail in the documentary Blue to Red: The Shifting of America airing Sunday, July 31, at 9 p.m. Eastern on Newsmax. We're splitting into a red and blue country. Woke policy is so bad, Oregon is turning redhttps://t.co/AwR5GbMgRb, Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) October 6, 2022. Democrat Joe Biden lost it by less than 3.5 . The governor is proud of the investments his administration has made in rural and downstate communities and will continue to work tirelessly to serve all of Illinois.. But the gubernatorial candidate also accuses Democratic policies for contributing to homelessness in the past, especially in Portland and other major cities. Grumbach reached a similar conclusion in a recent paper analyzing trends in small-d democracy across the states. The states rapid diversification and leftward lurch in politics are emblematic of broader trends across the nation, which could end up looking like Texas sooner rather than later. Greg Abbott and dashing Democratic hopes that the state would turn purple. Democrats went from winning 43 counties in the 1998 governors race down to a dismal one county in the 2014 race, in which Democratic incumbent Gov. . The Trump model, in other words, is more the South in 1850 than the South in 1950, more John Calhoun than Richard Russell. My dad would often come home from work shortly before my mom headed out for her late-night shift as a nurse. Double your gift when you give by 6 p.m. Thursday. In 2018, Pritzker made easy work out of predecessor Bruce Rauners reelection bid, routing the one-term Republican by nearly 16 percentage points. Voters in Oregon are beginning to favor Christine Drazan, a former Representative in the states House and the current Republican gubernatorial candidate. Reviewed in the United States on August 17, 2022 Disc didn't work Images in this review Reviews with images. In 2018, with Beto ORourke, Democratic performance improved by13.9 percentage points from the previous midterm. Reason to act now, else risklosing generations of progress made in enfranchising Black and brown communities. . Democrats, who have been advocating for expanding voter access and reproductive health, have made significant gains in Texas. Among likely voters: in California, 91% of Democrats are for Newsom; in New York, 89% of Democrats are for Hochul; in Texas, 95% of Republicans are for Abbott; and, in Florida, 97% of Republicans are for DeSantis. It doesnt matter if Im in the inner city of Chicago. In this match-up, DeSantis barely edges out Newsom, 51-49%. U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores, a Republican who lost the South Texas seat she had won in a special election earlier this year, blamed apathy by conservative voters as well as independents who had heavily leaned Republican in Texas polling. Importantly, the majority of Texans oppose recent conservative priorities. If Newsom or DeSantis make bids, it is clear they would use their respective states as models for what the nation as a whole should become. Now, if Glenn was to run for dog catcher against a cat, the cat would get 90% of the vote, said Spencer, who called Poshard a friend. In 2020, Democrats improved their margin by 3.3percentage points from 2016. But as that political streak again gets put to the test in the high-stakes 2022 gubernatorial campaign, Democrats are losing a battle for counties across Illinois, surrendering vast sections of the states topography to Republicans. All Rights Reserved. Election results left Republicans and conservatives cheering, but also made clear that a battle very much rages within the Democratic Party - the dominant party in New York State - That includes five open seats, including Republican retirements in the key battlegrounds of Pennsylvania and North Carolina and the. After years of projections that congressional reapportionment in 2020 would see red states lose political power to blue states that have been inundated with illegal and legal immigration over the . That progress, though, stopped after 1980, and the gap remained roughly unchanged for the next three decades. My work as a community organizer in Texas, a soldierand a graduate student at Harvard are just as much their achievements as they are mine. By that. These changes were catalyzed by a diversifying electorate similar to Texas and aggressive investment in organizing to reach young voters and voters of color. We then provided a free response box. kmiller@cmc.edu, Kravis Center, Fourth Floor Because of this reality, these states can switch from supporting one party to the other, from election to election. The 102 GOP-controlled cities and towns, in fact, is less than the 119 Stefanowski won in 2018 in a losing . Podhorzer defines modern red and blue America as the states in which each party has usually held unified control of the governorship and state legislature in recent years. Because of that, he said, the labor vote in some areas downstate is trending Republican. Iowa, Ohio, and ME-2 are trending red and have gone pretty deep in that direction, Texas is trending blue but the Democrats still aren't getting as much of the vote there as in NC. Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election by taking 100 electoral votes from this 'blue wall' and flipping them. The trend of population shifts from Democratically dominated blue states to Republican-controlled red states only accelerated in the COVID-era of the past 2 years, according to census data and other information from companies like U-Haul. Tesla CEO Elon Musk made waves in 2021 when he announced that he was relocating the electric car giants headquarters from the tech hub of Silicon Valley in California to Austin, Texas. So I went to work at Walmart, he said. I was campaigning on jobs, education, broadband internet, infrastructure, all kinds of things that would help this area. The great convergence of the mid-20th century may have been an anomaly. Chris Chu de Len is a native Texan and community organizer. Of the four governors discussed in this report, DeSantis and Newsom are best positioned to run, although Newsom has disavowed any plans to do so. A closer look at election data in the state shows recent presidential and Senate wins might be breakthroughs to a new. The GOPs success in Texas, even as it fell short of expectations nationally, signaled voters endorsement of Abbott following a second term marked by aggressive actions on the border and immigration, conservative positions on LGBTQ and other social issues and a near-total ban on abortion. All of these things combine to make this rural-urban divide much greater, he said. Biden's victory, and the matter in which he won, left many political pundits. Midterm dynamics suggest that 2022 is likelier to see Republicans making inroads into blue states than Democrats making inroads into red ones, but, since gubernatorial elections can sometimes . Red-state taxes are generally lower than their blue counterparts. Similarly, 56% of Republicans in Texas and 48% of Republicans in Florida report that they are worse off or much worse off now than two years ago, yet nearly all Republicans in those states will line up to reelect Governors Abbott and DeSantis. Rural Texas still rules the day. At one time we truly were the "United" States of America, but now we have been split into two opposing camps that deeply hate one another. Sometimes, you might get hit, Spencer said in a tone where it didnt sound like he was joking. Since then, its been a solidly red county. In California, for all its dissatisfied people, only 2% had taken all four actions. Lilliana Mason, a Johns Hopkins University political scientist, told me that the experience of Jim Crow segregation offers an important reference point for understanding how far red states might take this movement to roll back civil rights and libertiesnot that they literally would seek to restore segregation, but that they are comfortable with a time when states had laws so entirely different that they created a form of domestic apartheid. Urban regions of Oregon continue to struggle with surges in violent crime. If Democrats have anything to show for this election, its that they won two of three congressional seats up for grabs in South Texas denying Republicans their hopes of statement victories in a heavily Hispanic region. And it is determined to impose its policy and social vision on the entire countrywith or without majority support. Thats owed primarily to Democrat-heavy Cook County with its 5 million residents, including Chicago. Either way, Nevada is the exception that proves the rule: The three blue states with the lowest vaccination rates Arizona (45 percent), Nevada (44 percent) and Georgia (38 percent) are also the three blue states with the highest hospitalization rates, as well as three that Trump came closest to winning in 2020. Bailey is quick to invoke a biblical passage, Proverbs 28:2, to explain himself, his candidacy and where Illinois is at right now: When there is moral rot, a nations government topples easily, but wise and knowledgeable leaders bring stability.. Republicans are on a long winning streak in Florida, even if their victories have been by small . Although Texas is on the cusp of turning blue, these same lawmakers banned abortion after about six weeks and restricted voting rights, culminating in possibly the most conservative legislative session in a generation. One-party hegemony in these states also allows their governors to build robust policy records they can wield when stepping onto the national stage. The responses varied by party, with greater percentages of Republicans than Democrats in both red and blue states expressing this view. Pritzkers campaign has made clear it doesnt aim to cede any of that turf next November to whatever Republican prevails in the June 28, 2022 primary, and that it hopes to build on 2018s results. Just32%of Texans want to make abortion laws stricter, yet Republicans bannedup to 90%of abortions,primarily affectingwomen of color. The country is bifurcating, Bolling says in the film. These maps offer a chance to look beneath the. population, states, documentary, blue, red. With some complex but telling statistical calculations, he documents a return to historical patterns from the Jim Crow era in which the dominant party (segregationist Democrats then, conservative Republicans now) has skewed the playing field to achieve a level of political dominance in the red nation far beyond its level of popular support. We are more like a federated republic of two nations: Blue Nation and Red Nation. "I do not believe that America will become violent enough to be characterized as a civil war," Abrahms says. That's not a new trend this year. He said state patronage jobs are no longer being doled out to high-achieving Democratic political workers. No state in the blue section has a law on the books banning abortion before fetal viability, while almost all of the red states are poised to restrict abortion rights if the Republican-appointed Supreme Court majority, as expected, overturns Roe v. Wade. AT&T DirecTV Censorship of Newsmax Continues, See More Here, Report: Texas, Arizona, Florida Posted Biggest Population Gains in 2021, Red States Grow as Blue States Shrink: Census, Air Force Fires Nuclear Base Leaders After Failed Inspection, Consumer Product Safety Commission Wants Information on Gas Stove Hazards. The trend of population migration Democratically dominated blue states to Republican-controlled red states is examined in the documentary Blue to Red: The Shifting of America airing Sunday, at 9 p.m. Eastern on Newsmax. Five of Illinois 15 least vaccinated counties are in Baileys state Senate district, state public health data show. They cant make me take that vaccine, he said, quoting her. A series of blue states are set to lose political power in 2020 for the 2022 midterm elections, newly released data from the Census Bureau suggests. 2023 Conservative Journal. In the blue state of Oregon's 5th Congressional District, where it's been over a quarter-century since a Republican last won election, GOP nominee Lori Chavez-DeRemer is locked in a very. During the U.S. Presidential Election in 2000, journalist Tim Russert used the terms "red state" and "blue state" based on the colored maps used during his televised coverage of the election. Forbes magazine says the shift in population has been as much political as it has been economic. In 2018, during his one and only run for the Illinois House, Bailey won with 76% of the vote. The picture is a bit clearer for the Republicans. The GOP won the governorship. Think tank sees a lot of blue turning red in 2022 By GARY MILLER Jun 8, 2021 38 A liberal think tank says the 2022 elections will be bright red. The analysis relied on the United States Postal Services change-of-address data to identify domestic migration patterns. Claremont McKenna College . re: Red states that will eventually turn Blue? With these three states shifted into those categories, the two nations are almost equal in eligible voting-age population, and the blue advantage in GDP roughly doubles, with the blue section contributing 48 percent and the red just 35 percent. Im looking at some numbers across the country and some places have record midterm turnout, and we just didnt do it in Texas. (April 26), Get a digest of our takes on current events every day, Democrats still face daunting historical odds, voted Democratic only once in a presidential election since 1948, not occupied both U.S. Senate seats since 1952, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. American. The States Of the Blue Wall. Last year, the American Enterprise Institute released a Among Democrats, Newsom (7%) lags behind Vice President (and fellow Californian) Kamala Harris (14%) in the large field that includes Biden, and it is far from clear he would be willing to challenge either Harris or Biden. An emergency declaration is a powerful tool we need to help homeless Oregonians. Nearly one-fourth of Democratic voters (24% in California and 23% in New York) described themselves as worse off or much worse off now than they were two years ago, yet about 9 of 10 Democrats in those states will vote for Governors Newsom and Hochul. ), Our survey asked respondents across the nation to register their early preferences for the 2024 presidential race. STATE OF THE ECONOMYTAKING HITS AND RUNNING UP DEFICITS. Republicans and Democrats are battling for control over Congress, while many states are busy holding gubernatorial elections to appoint a new state leader. Photo by Alyssa Stone/Northeastern University and Photo by Matthew Modoono/Northeastern University. Over the past year, however, many of our Chicago teams have asked to relocate to Miami, New York, and our other offices around the world.. The state was fewer than5 percentage pointsaway from picking Bernie Sanders as its 2020 Democratic presidential nominee. In Texas and Florida, independents are marginally adding to the incumbents lead, whereas in California and New York, disapproval from independents is not enough to overcome the Democrats large numerical advantages. Despite improbable journeys across two countries distant shores away, my parents collectively believed they collectively hoped that Americas Lone Star State would give them and their future children a shot at success. But although Arizona is blue for now, Volgy isn't committed to that. Countless More Americans Will Be Moving From Blue States To Red States In 2022 The Great Realignment By Michael Snyder. Most of the states we live in appear to be solidly Republican or Democrat. In both California and New York, 1-in-5 Democratic registered voters stated that the quality of life has worsened at a time when most of their state and federal representatives are Democrats. [2] Despite their vastly different approaches to the pandemic, economic challenges, and cultural conflict, all of these governors will almost certainly achieve the same result: reelection. During the seven decades of legal Jim Crow segregation from the 1890s through the 1960s, the principal goal of the southern states at the core of red America was defensive: They worked tirelessly to prevent federal interference with state-sponsored segregation but did not seek to impose it on states outside the region. Newsom and DeSantis have already been sparring by attacking the rival states policies. In a private newsletter that he writes for a small group of activists, Podhorzer recently laid out a detailed case for thinking of the two blocs as fundamentally different nations uneasily sharing the same geographic space. Mostly voting for Democratic candidates means a state becomes Blue. Meanwhile, California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, and New Jersey rounded out the bottom of the list. Health outcomes are diverging too. Max Abrahms (right), who teaches national security and terrorism courses, warns of labeling America's red-blue divide a civil war. The share of kids in poverty is more than 20 percent lower in the blue section than red, and the share of working households with incomes below the poverty line is nearly 40 percent lower. . No Democratic candidate for governor has won more counties than Poshard since Dan Walker won the governorship in 1972. The people in power, however, would rather not have you know that. I would bet if you look across the Democrat Party and downstate Illinois youll find probably 50 to 60% of the precincts not even filled with committeemen, because that expectation that working in the rank-and-file of the party will result in some sort of help in getting a job isnt there anymore, he said. As the Nov. 3 election approaches, debate over which way Texas will lean has led voters to question if Texas is becoming a "purple" state.Having been strictly Republican (red) since 1976 in the presidential elections, Texas now has an increasing number of Democratic (blue) voters in the prediction polls. 850 Columbia Ave (Podhorzer also offers a slightly different grouping of the states that reflects the more recent trend in which Virginia has voted like a blue state at the presidential level, and Arizona and Georgia have moved from red to purple. The RED WAVE did not happen, Flores wrote in a fiery Tweet after her apparent defeat on Tuesday. that, using census data, found from April 2020 to July 2021, the top states for inbound migration were Florida, Texas, Arizona, the Carolinas, and Tennessee. This book examines how socio-cultural, demographic . Moreover, the elections may give momentum to at least two of these governorsNewsom and DeSantisto sell their states competing visions to the nation by running for president in 2024. See all customer images . These results are part of a larger survey project conducted by the CMC-Rose Institute Poll during the 2022 election cycle. Yet, as much as Spencers political fortunes as a Democrat have suffered, Bailey is highly popular with his areas voters. But hes warning that the pressure on the countrys fundamental cohesion is likely to continue ratcheting up in the 2020s. Many red states have experienced robust job growth (though thats been heavily concentrated in their blue-leaning metro areas). (ConservativeJournal.org) The midterms are just around the corner. By Brian Trusdell | Assistant Professor of Government Your donation keeps our trusted reporting free and accessible for all Texans and during a legislative session when lawmakers are set to tackle issues from school choice for K-12 students to school safety improvements to changes in property taxes, its critical that Texans know what lawmakers decisions mean for their futures. He also lumped Rauner into that category for abandoning an anti-abortion campaign pledge. Pritzker defeated Rauner in Cook County by more than 836,000 votes. By Nicole Narea @nicolenarea Nov 11, 2022, 10:04am EST Andrew Sinclair, Ph.D. Voters seem to be fine with the status quo, said Drew Landry, assistant professor of government at South Plains College in Levelland, west of Lubbock. Republicans havent led the state of Oregon since 1982. While two points might not seem like much, that tiny difference tells a compelling story. All the evidence, anecdotal and empirical, is there to show that the top-of-the-ticket Democratic wins by Mark Kelly . Yet, concerns about personal finances do not appear to be driving voting decisions in the gubernatorial races in these states. Instead, we asked all respondents across the nation to choose, head-to-head, between Newsom and DeSantis. Later, in a survey by WBEZ, he was among only a handful of Illinois legislators who would not publicly state their vaccination status. Just didnt do it in Texas have suffered, Bailey won with %..., new York, Illinois, Massachusetts, and could soon tip the balance of in. 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